Sadr decides he doesn’t want to die quite yet

Our good and dear friend Mookie al-Sadr, “firebrand cleric” and self-appointed Shiite leader, says “um, well, OK, another six months of cease-fire with the Iraqi government and the American oppressors is a good idea” according to this story in the Long War Journal[*1] :

Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the Sadrist movement and the commander of the Mahdi Army, has ordered the extension of the cease-fire, anonymous senior officials in his movement have told Reuters[*2] . The cease-fire, which was put in place after a major clash in Najaf in August 2007, will be extended by six months.

“Sadr had issued a declaration to preachers to be read during midday prayers on Friday at mosques affiliated with the cleric,” Reuters reported. “The general idea is that there will be an extension,” an unnamed senior official in Sadr’s movement in Baghdad told the news agency. “Sayed (Sadr) has distributed sealed envelopes to the imams of the mosques to be read tomorrow. They cannot be opened before tomorrow.” Another senior official in Najaf said the cease-fire would be extended by six months.

. . .

While the reporting has focused on the negative implications the US and the Iraqi government if Sadr ended the cease-fire, Sadr himself had his own problems if the truce was ended. After Sadr’s political movement withdrew from the government in early 2007, Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki had a greater freedom of movement to tackle Sadr and his Mahdi Army. Since then, the Iraqi military has repositioned itself to take on the Mahdi Army in the south.

The US and Iraqi security forces have demonstrated a willingness to strike at Sadr’s Mahdi Army, even in his purported stronghold of Sadr City in Baghdad. General David Petraeus pressured Maliki at the onset of the surge to take on the extreme elements of Mahdi Army as well as al Qaeda in Iraq, and Maliki approved. If Sadr ends the truce now, the US military is still at its peek in the number of combat brigades available for use in tackling the Mahdi Army.

By calling off the cease-fire, Sadr risked reigniting the violence in Iraq, which has dropped dramatically since last summer. Sadr risked alienating Iraqis as well as exposing his real level of support in the Shia community. The Iraqi government had the option of declaring the Mahdi Army and the Sadrist movement as illegal groups, and barring Sadrist politicians from running for political office.

Could it be that common sense is making an appearance in a Middle Eastern country?  Stay tuned . . .