McCain/Palin leads the race, probably

Zogby says[*1] .

Summary:  McCain/Palin favored by somewhere between 47.6% and 51.8% of the population.
Obama/Biden is favored by somewhere between 43.8% and 48.0% of the population.

(Zogby reports 49.7%-45.9% with a 2.1% margin for error.  I just added the margin of error to the two median numbers to show the range–which is actually the correct way of interpreting a poll.)